Geopolitics and Macroeconomics: What are the effects of the resurgence of trade wars on African economies and what are the sustainable financing solutions?

Geopolitics and Macroeconomics: What are the effects of the resurgence of trade wars on African economies and what are the sustainable financing solutions?

Terms of Reference:

Geopolitics and Macroeconomics: Effects of the Resurgence of Trade Wars on African Economies and Sustainable Financing Solutions

1. Background

Recent years have seen a resurgence of global trade tensions and protectionist policies, notably between major economic powers such as the United States and China. These developments have disrupted global value chains, altered commodity markets, and increased uncertainty in international trade and finance.

African economies—many of which are highly dependent on commodity exports and external financing—are particularly vulnerable to such shocks. Trade wars can affect export demand, currency stability, inflation, foreign direct investment, and debt sustainability.

At the same time, the need for sustainable financing solutions aligned with development priorities and resilience-building has become increasingly urgent. This panel seeks to analyze the macroeconomic and geopolitical implications of renewed trade conflicts on African economies and identify viable financing strategies.

2. Objectives

Overall Objective

To assess the macroeconomic and geopolitical impacts of renewed trade wars on African economies and propose sustainable financing solutions to enhance resilience and growth.

Specific Objectives

  • Analyze the nature and drivers of recent trade wars and geopolitical tensions
  • Evaluate transmission channels affecting African economies
  • Assess macroeconomic impacts (growth, inflation, exchange rates, trade balances, debt)
  • Identify country- and sector-specific vulnerabilities
  • Examine the implications for sustainable development and investment flows
  • Propose innovative and sustainable financing mechanisms

3. Scope of Work

3.1 Thematic Areas

  • Global trade dynamics and protectionism
  • Commodity price volatility and terms of trade
  • Exchange rate movements and capital flows
  • Fiscal and debt sustainability
  • Supply chain disruptions and regional trade integration
  • Role of multilateral institutions and development finance

3.2 Sectoral Focus

  • Extractive industries (oil, gas, minerals)
  • Agriculture and agro-processing
  • Manufacturing and industrialization
  • Energy and infrastructure

3.3 Geographic Coverage

  • Africa-wide analysis
  • Regional economic blocs (e.g., ECOWAS, SADC, EAC)
  • Selected country case studies

4. Key Research Questions

  • What are the main geopolitical drivers behind the resurgence of trade wars?
  • Through which channels do trade wars impact African economies?
  • Which countries and sectors are most vulnerable or resilient?
  • How do trade wars affect debt sustainability and fiscal space?
  • What opportunities (e.g., trade diversion, regional integration) may arise?
  • What sustainable financing mechanisms can mitigate adverse effects